Rome/Berlin: The war in Ukraine could have dramatic consequences for food distribution in developing countries, a forecast by the United Nations showed on Friday.
If there are major cuts in the export of grain from major producers Ukraine and Russia, and if prices continue to rise worldwide, millions of people will be threatened with malnutrition by next year, a simulation by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) found.
Prices for wheat and corn, among other grains, have already risen sharply on world markets.
The FAO estimates that the number of undernourished people worldwide will rise by 8 million to 13 million by 2023 if the conflict in Ukraine continues for months.
The Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and North Africa, along with sub-Saharan Africa, would be particularly affected.
According to the FAO, around 50 countries worldwide depend on imports of wheat from Ukraine or Russia. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, while Ukraine ranks fifth in the statistics.
“The conflict’s intensity and duration remain uncertain. The likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally, when international food and input prices are already high and volatile,” FAO Director-General Dongyu Qu said in a statement. It is unclear whether other countries in the world will be able to fill the impending supply gap, Qu added.
Agriculture ministers from the G7 group of leading industrialised nations, plus Ukraine, held a video conference on the issue on Friday.
Germany’s Cem Özdemir said it was apparent that many countries were experiencing difficulties in obtaining supplies.
“It is all the more important that we keep markets open worldwide and do not hinder them, for example, through export restrictions,”Özdemir said.
In addition, aid organisations should be supported in their efforts to continue buying and distributing grain, a G7 statement said.
Farmers in countries such as Germany are also concerned about drastically higher prices for nitrogen fertiliser, the production of which requires natural gas. Russia is a major provider and gas prices are surging amid huge economic sanctions against the Kremlin.
Despite his nation being invaded and the Russian attack widening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on his country’s farmers to keep up production to try to avoid shortages of grain.
Ukraine is often considered one of the breadbaskets of Europe and is the global leader in sunflower oil exports. — dpa