US President Joe Biden has been basking in the glow of his $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which he signed into law on November 15. But Biden’s virtual summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the same day underlined the need for both leaders to invest some of their political capital in rebuilding the infrastructure that supports their countries’ increasingly brittle bilateral relationship.
During their meeting, both presidents expressed a desire to avoid a new cold war. But no amount of summitry will steer US-China relations back on track without some fundamental agreement between the two countries.
Fortunately, unlike former president Donald Trump’s administration, Biden does appear to want to restore normality to the relationship. As US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said after the meeting, “intense competition” between the two countries “requires intense diplomacy.” Likewise, China is exploring new approaches vis-a-vis the United States.
True, top Chinese diplomats are far more assertive nowadays towards their US counterparts than they had been in the past, and China’s military buildup continues apace. But as the summit began, Xi smiled when greeting Biden, calling him an “old friend.”
Given the unyielding tone of previous US meetings with senior Chinese leaders during Biden’s presidency, this was a clear indication that Xi wants to change the tenor of the relationship.
Bonhomie aside, China and the US have actually made progress of late, particularly with a joint declaration to work together in the coming decisive decade to avert catastrophic climate change. The move is a possible early sign of a compartmentalised approach that would be conducive to both countries’ long-term interests.
But many Chinese analysts fear that America’s deep political divisions could threaten the sustainability of US-China cooperation on climate change and other issues. A USA Today-Suffolk University poll conducted shortly before the passage of the infrastructure bill found that Biden’s approval rating had sunk to a new low of 38 per cent.
China is wary of the prospect of Republican victories in the 2022 US midterm elections and the 2024 presidential election, because Trump’s continued grip on the party risks a repeat of the diplomatic ructions that marked his presidency.
At the same time, China thinks that now is an opportune moment to secure its political and economic position in the world. In autumn 2022, the Communist Party of China will hold its 20th National Party Congress. Now unchallenged within the CPC, and with “Xi Jinping Thought” woven tightly into Chinese public life, Xi’s long-term goals — China’s full “socialist modernization” by 2035, and a “great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious” by 2049 — have become fixed in stone.
Xi is determined to prevent rocky relations with the US from interfering with these objectives.
In many ways, therefore, US-China relations in the coming years may be hostage to both countries’ domestic politics. The looming midterm elections mean that the Biden administration is likely to take further tough measures against China, which will respond in ways that do not project weakness.
Sustaining productive dialogue between Xi and Biden will thus be a constant challenge.
© Project Syndicate, 2021
