A compass helps one find one’s way, and the “Strategic Compass” that I have drafted at the behest of the European Council will serve as an operational guide for the European Union’s development and decision-making on security and defence. It is now heading to EU foreign affairs and defence ministers for discussions next week.

The compass is designed to answer three questions: Which challenges and threats do we face? How can we better pool our assets and manage them effectively? And what is the best way to project Europe’s influence as both a regional and global actor?

Our overall threat analysis shows clearly that Europe is in danger. The EU risks what I have called a “strategic shrinkage.” This can be perceived from three points of view. First, our economic reach is becoming increasingly circumscribed. Thirty years ago, the EU represented one-quarter of the world’s wealth; in 20 years, it will account for just over 10 per cent. Our demographic shrinkage develops similarly: By the end of this century, Europe will account for less than 5 per cent of the world’s population.

More fundamentally, some of our economic competitors hold values that are very different from ours, thus posing a threat to our normative power. The EU must integrate this fact into its policymaking, recognising that the competition for global standards is already playing out in the race for mastery over artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductors, and biotechnology.

Second, the EU’s strategic theatre is increasingly contested, owing to challenges by new ambitious actors, demonstrations of military force, and destabilisation strategies featuring cyber warfare and disinformation. Gone are the days when peace and war constituted two clearly distinct states. We are and will increasingly be confronted with hybrid situations that require a broad range of defensive assets.

Finally, the EU’s political sphere is being squeezed, and our liberal values increasingly contested. In the “battle of narratives,” the idea that universal values are really just Western constructs has been gaining traction. The old assumption that economic prosperity would always lead to democratic development has been refuted.

In navigating this increasingly competitive strategic environment, the EU must become a provider of security for its citizens, protecting our values and interests. But to do that, it will need to act faster and more decisively when managing crises. That means anticipating fast-changing threats and safeguarding its citizens against them; investing in the necessary capabilities and technologies; and cooperating with partners to achieve common goals.

Such measures will increase our capacity to deter attacks, and to react to one if it comes. The main value of military force is not that it allows us to solve problems, but that it can help to prevent problems being solved to our detriment. That is why the Strategic Compass proposes an EU capacity for rapid force deployment across the entire spectrum of actions envisaged by EU treaties.

Past attempts to deploy EU forces swiftly have met with only limited success. But the Strategic Compass aims to make such deployments more readily operational and effective in three ways. First, it would follow a modular approach, with its composition defined by concrete scenarios and reinforced by joint training, rather than being pre-positioned as a permanent force.

Second, there would be clear guidelines stating that it is the mission that determines the type and size of the force, not vice versa. And, third, we could step up our efforts to overcome various shortcomings that have long hampered our operational capabilities, with clear actions that should receive priority.