Is Sudan destined to become another Libya?

When a post-colonial country with little or no democratic tradition escapes a brutal dictatorship, it rarely becomes a democracy. Instead, it is likely to be confronted by political chaos and foreign actors jostling for strategic advantage. This occurred in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, and in Libya after Muammar al Qaddafi was ousted. Is Sudan destined for the same fate?

So far, the answer seems to be yes. When longtime Sudanese dictator Omar al Bashir was removed in a military coup in 2019, the same foreign powers that have made Libya their strategic playground saw an opportunity to gain a foothold at the crossroads of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.

To be sure, a Sovereignty Council was quickly established to lead the country through a transition to civilian leadership. But last month — just over a year before the transition would be complete — Sudan’s military chief, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, dissolved the Sovereignty Council and had the civilian prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, arrested.

The coup’s perpetrators all served under Bashir. Moreover, Burhan has ordered the release from prison of high officials from Bashir’s now-dissolved National Congress Party, as well as Islamist leaders. This has raised fears in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates that Sudan’s new leadership shares the fallen dictator’s sympathies for their nemesis, the Brotherhood.

Yet military coups are rarely driven by ideology. Instead, they are usually bids to protect corporate and economic interests. The coup-makers are probably also hoping to shield themselves from international war crimes charges. After all, Burhan was among the architects of the Darfur genocide. But this does not mean that countries like Egypt can rest easy. Turkey’s relationship with Bashir brought major strategic benefits, including a 99-year lease on Suakin island, strategically located on the Red Sea.

Russia also has its eye on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. Last year, it signed a deal with the Sovereignty Council that would allow it to keep up to four navy ships at Port Sudan. Russia, which has not had a naval base in Africa since the end of the Cold War, is keen for any Sudanese government to reaffirm the agreement.

One country that seems largely to have lost interest in Sudan is China. Unlike Libya, Sudan is not a major oil producer. It lost that position when South Sudan seceded in 2011, taking 80 per cent of the country’s proven oil reserves with it. This probably explains why, from 2011 to 2018, China granted Sudan just $143 million in loans — far less than the nearly $6 billion provided between 2003 and 2010.

Moreover, whereas the conflict in Libya has done little to erode stability in the Maghreb, a war in Sudan would upend a precarious regional order. Ethiopia is already mired in a civil war that threatens to morph into a border war with Sudan, which would disrupt oil exports from South Sudan. And Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile represents an existential threat to Egypt.Copyright:

@Project Syndicate 2021