Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and French President Emmanuel Macron are on track to sign a bilateral accord — the so-called Quirinale Treaty named after the Roman palace — designed to boost their countries’ industrial and strategic cooperation. But this new Paris-Rome power axis may do much more than that as it may very well alter the leadership dynamic within the entire European Union.
This emerging Draghi/Macron alliance may seem like an odd pairing, because some French look down their noses at Italians. I personally witnessed quite a lot of this when I lived in Aix-en-Provence, a place where French and Italian culture often compete and clash. But judging the Italians harshly for their politics is much harder to do now that the supremely competent and experienced Draghi is in charge.
A mere ten months after taking office, Draghi has emerged as one of Europe’s most highly regarded and influential politicians. Just before last month’s G20 summit in Rome, he held a private meeting with US President Joe Biden — a tête-à-tête that testifies to his elevated standing in the transatlantic alliance.
The staunchly pro-European, pro-American, and pro-Nato prime minister has also made savvy political moves that could change the face of Europe and the EU. For starters, he has forged a deep bond with Macron. Working together, the two leaders have an excellent opportunity to wield more influence over EU policy — from the economy to defence — now that Angela Merkel is stepping down as German chancellor after 16 years in power. The Quirinale Treaty is a concrete result of their new cooperation to fill the gap created by Merkel’s departure.
If they succeed, the locus of influence in the EU will shift southward — and towards greater European integration. Here, Draghi and Macron see eye to eye, including on the critical issue of European defence. Both are confident in the EU’s ability to act independently as a military force while still maintaining its full commitment to Nato.
With China becoming increasingly belligerent under President Xi Jinping, a European defence force could fill in the strategic gaps created by Nato’s own efforts to reorient itself towards Asia. It is wrong to argue that America is turning its back on Europe with its pivot to Asia. Supporting greater military independence for Europe means that Nato will be freed up to focus on China, which poses as much of a military threat to Europe as it does to the US.
A three-party German coalition government comprising the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Free Democrats could turn out to be a boon for the European project, and not only with respect to defence policy. On issues ranging from fiscal and monetary union to eurobonds, China, and Russia, Draghi and Macron will no longer be banging their heads against a closed door.
Copyright:
Project Syndicate@2021
