PARIS: The world economy’s fragile recovery from the Covid-induced crisis is now threatened by Russia’s war in Ukraine and soaring commodity prices.
Here are some questions regarding the risks to global GDP:
Will growth stall? – “The war happened right at a time when Europe and the US had a recovery that was going really well. Projections in Europe were among the highest … (in) the last 20 years,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, resident senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States in their Brussels office.
In just two weeks, the war has had a “material impact” on the economy, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said on Thursday, revising the growth outlook for the euro zone to 3.7 per cent for 2022, from 4.2 per cent forecast in December.
The war and sanctions, which include a US ban on Russian oil imports, are raising prices of energy and other key commodities like wheat, fertilisers and metals to surge, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said.
That comes “on top of already high inflation,” Georgieva said.
“We got through a crisis like no other with the pandemic. We are now in an even more shocking territory.”
Credit rating agency S&P has cut its projection for global growth this year to 3.4 per cent — a decline of 0.7 percentage points over its earlier forecast due to the expected slump in Russia’s sanctions-hit economy and rising energy costs.
– Why are prices soaring? – Inflation has been rising worldwide for a year — due to Covid-linked disruptions in supply chains, leading to a spurt in the prices of raw materials which have raised production costs.
The war has sent oil and gas prices soaring, threatening to worsen inflationary pressure.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the US Congress that every $10 hike in oil prices would impact growth by 0.1 percentage points and add 0.2 percentage points to inflation.
The United States recorded 7.9 per cent inflation in February — a new 40-year high.
“We are facing an oil shock, a gas shock and an electricity shock. This has never happened together,” said Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director the Jacques Delors energy institute.
Apart from oil and gas, other key commodities have been affected, with prices of aluminium, nickel and wheat skyrocketing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned of inflationary pressures worldwide as a result of the Western sanctions on his country.
– More stimulus on the way? – Nations launched huge stimulus programmes to prevent their economies from crumbling after the pandemic emerged in 2020.
But governments are loath to dig much deeper into public finances.
Aid will likely be more targeted. The G7 group of industrialised nations, for instance has called for massive support to households slammed by energy costs.
Emerging nations, however, will be more fragile and vulnerable to inflation and even political instability, experts warn.
– Is Covid still a threat? – While many countries are easing Covid restrictions, China has been doing the opposite.
(AFP)
