Middle East to see pilot shortages from 2023

In a newly released update on pilot shortages in the aviation sector, global management consultancy Oliver Wyman said that as air travel demand continues to recover this year, demand for airline pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 – with the Middle East feeling the effects first.

According to André Martins, Partner – Head of IMEA Transportation and Services at Oliver Wyman, “We expect the Middle East to be the region affected soonest by the shortage outside of North America, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years, new players entering the market and big tourism developments happening in the region”.

The new figures from Oliver Wyman show that this spike in demand for air travel coincides with a flat then declining supply of pilots in the region, due to a combination of lay-offs during the COVID-19 pandemic, a falling number of newly-certified pilots, and retirements eventually outstripping new pilots.

The regional shortage could start as early as the end of this year, reaching an estimated 3,000 pilots by 2023 and 18,000 by 2032 if no accelerated mitigation actions are taken.

“If demand for air travel continues to grow, airlines need to accelerate recruiting efforts from other regions where we anticipate less acute shortages, particularly Latin America and the Asia Pacific, to fill gaps. Failing that, we may see an adjustment of schedules into and out of the region, impacting the Middle East’s carriers and airport operators” added Martins.

Oliver Wyman forecasted in early 2021 that an impending pilot shortage was on the horizon, contrary to reality at the time, as COVID-19 was decimating the airline industry and any recovery appeared years away. We are now predicting global aviation to be short nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032, absent a downturn in future demand or air travel and/or strenuous efforts by the industry to bolster the supply of pilots.

“We expect the Middle East to be the region affected soonest by the shortage outside of North America, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years. The region could face a shortage of 3,000 pilots by 2023 and 18,000 by 2032,” the report said.

Europe currently is in surplus and we expect it to remain so until the middle of the decade, but then forecast a shortage of 19,000 pilots by 2032, driven predominately by increased demand.

Asia currently has a surplus of pilots as well, mainly due to the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on demand, but we anticipate that Asia will begin to see a shortage of pilots toward the end of the decade as demand growth resumes.